Ethereum has recently been the butt of jokes from large-cap crypto traders—and not the amusing kind.

When we look at the ETH/BTC ratio, which is down a hard-to-look-at 77% since December 2021, we see something that is more overconfidence than it is wisdom. Most people see decline. But if we’re looking at this like seasoned investors, we can potentially see a rare opportunity.

On-chain data is sending buy signals, and the signs coming from long-term holders are shifting in an impressive manner.

Dormancy Flow Hints at Accumulation Phase

An unmistakable signal is coming from the Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow of Ethereum, which has now dropped below 1 million—a level that, historically, has been associated with big reversals in the price of Ethereum. Dormancy Flow measures how long coins sit untouched. When it is this low, it often means that holders are simply not interested in selling, regardless of how high or low the price is.

This usually signifies:

– A loss of hope or interest in the market

– A capitulation phase that might have already taken place

– A probable entry point for smart money, which flourishes on fear and silence.

At present, all three conditions seem to be in play. The public narrative may convey a sense of defeat, but the deeper data suggest a slow, simmering change in momentum.

Massive ETH Withdrawals Signal Confidence

To back that up, 453,000 ETH have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges over just the last five days. Such a large movement usually signifies that investors are migrating their assets into long-term storage; this cuts the potential “sell pressure” when the 453,000 ETH are pulled off the exchanges, and it also suggests that those investors have some degree of confidence in Ethereum.

Tokens are often taken off platforms and put into cold wallets when upward price movements are expected. These big holders—in contrast to everyday traders—are more likely to use cold storage, which means the tokens aren’t going to be traded anytime soon.

The Ethereum Foundation Keeps Building

Although traders pursue narratives, the Ethereum Foundation does what it’s always done: it funds development. On April 10, the EF sent 1,000 ETH (about $1.53 million) to a multisig wallet used to distribute grants. Just two days before, they had transferred nearly the same amount—1,000 ETH (about $1.58 million).

This same grant-distributing wallet has dispatched more than 12,000 ETH since the middle of 2021. The total amount sent to the hands of builders and researchers working on the Ethereum ecosystem equals about 25.3 million dollars. EF’s funding consistency isn’t something that should go unnoticed—it is a subtle and kind of quiet commitment to signaling that there’s long-term value in the Ethereum network.

ETFs Tell a Different Story—For Now

Not all signs are positive, though. On April 10, the Ethereum spot ETFs saw $38.79 million in net outflows, marking a three-day streak of redemptions. It seems that institutional investors are quite skittish about holding ETH exposure these days, and for those worried about the price trajectory of the second-largest cryptocurrency, it’s quite understandable.

Yet, there’s frequently a delay between intelligent money gathering on-chain and the sentiment around ETFs catching up. Institutions may take their time moving back into the space. Still, when they do, it’s almost always after the bottom has already been established.

Conclusion: Laughter Today, Opportunity Tomorrow?

Ethereum is far from being in a gleaming state. Its recent nosedive has made it an obvious target for critics and naysayers. But what if the opposite were true? What if Ethereum’s underperformance wasn’t a knock against it, instead being a signal that it’s a very good time to start getting into Ethereum? The last few weeks and months have seen accumulation increase in several key places within the Ethereum network.

These aren’t the signs of an asset in decline. More often than not, they are the harbingers of resurgence.

Although traders tweet jokes and compare ETH to boats going down, there’s a story told by long-term holders and foundation grants in which Ethereum never stops working towards its next moment in the sun.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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