Key Notes

• Bitcoin rallies to $107K, driven by ETF inflows and weakening long-term holder profits.
• Bitfinex warns of fading momentum, as OBV and MACD show signs of exhaustion.
• Bulls eye $140K targets via Fib levels, but macro catalysts like Fed policy will likely dictate the next breakout.

After briefly surging past $107,000 with a 13% jump in trading volume, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be setting its sights on $140,000, but the road ahead may not be as straightforward as Bitcoin BTC $106 728 24h volatility: 0.7% Market cap: $2.12 T Vol. 24h: $21.85 B investors expect.

Long-Term Holders Show Resilience, But Profit-Taking Looms

Analyst Darkfost highlighted that the unrealized profits of long-term holders (LTH) have steadily declined and are now approaching levels last seen during the October 2024 correction.

However, with an average unrealized profit of around 220%, compared to 300% and 350% during previous cycles, there’s still room for upside. Darkfost noted that to reach profit levels comparable to previous peaks, Bitcoin would need to hit $140K.

📉 Unrealized profits of LTH continue to decline and are now approaching levels last seen during the October 2024 correction.

The average unrealized profit, based on the MVRV ratio, currently stands at around 220%.

That may seem high for BTC, but when compared to previous… pic.twitter.com/NeTCmXZVTY

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 1, 2025

The realized price for long-term holders now sits at $39,000, reinforcing that most LTHs remain deeply in profit and are likely to continue holding unless a parabolic move materializes.

Bitfinex: Momentum Fading, Consolidation Likely

Bitfinex analysts, however, offered a more cautious perspective. In their latest market report, they noted that momentum is starting to wane after a nearly three-month rally that pushed Bitcoin up by over 41% from its April lows of $73,273.

“For the first time in that uptrend, momentum has begun to fade,” they said, adding that on-chain data points to reduced spot buying pressure and increased profit-taking, particularly among short-term holders who entered positions below $80,000.

BTC STH Realized Price | Source: Bitfinex

Order flow data indicates that Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation phase rather than preparing for another vertical rally, according to Bitfinex.

ETF Inflows and Macro Factors Still Supportive

Despite signs of exhaustion, institutional appetite remains strong. Bitcoin ETFs in the US have seen 15 consecutive days of net inflows, totaling $4.75 billion as of June 30.

On June 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of $102 million, marking 15 consecutive days of net inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $31.76 million, with all nine ETFs showing no outflows.https://t.co/ueXcZjuIVU

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 1, 2025

Economist Timothy Peterson described last week’s $2.2 billion inflows as “massive,” expecting the positive streak to continue and potentially support further price appreciation.

Massive inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs last week!
$2.2 billion!
This ranks among the top 10 weeks since inception.
70% chance next week will be positive too, which generally correlates to upward price pressure. pic.twitter.com/m8x9SY9Dvo

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) June 29, 2025

Eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on July 30. Lower rates typically favor risk assets like Bitcoin, though current market estimates suggest only a 19% chance of a cut.

Technical Outlook: Key Fibonacci Levels in Play

As visible on the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading near the 0.786 Fibonacci level at approximately $108,000, a crucial resistance zone.

If this level is decisively broken, the next major Fibonacci targets stand at 1.618 Fib extension ($118,275), 2.618 Fib extension ($130,538), and 3.618 Fib extension ($142,801).

Bitcoin OBV, MACD Indicators on 1D Chart | Source: TradingView

On the flip side, support levels lie near the 0.618 Fib zone ($105,000) and the psychological barrier at $100,000.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) remains steady, suggesting that despite profit-taking, there’s no mass exodus from the asset. However, the MACD is showing early signs of a potential bearish crossover, indicating possible short-term weakness.

Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.

A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gathering experience and expertise in the space after surviving bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.

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