Since its post-halving slump in April, when investor margins were tight and long-term return expectations hit a cycle low, Bitcoin has made a remarkable comeback.

Now, with the asset nearly at $110,000 and the macro conditions appearing somewhat favorable, bullish projections have returned, including the possibility of reaching $168,000 by October 2025 if the current momentum maintains.

Inflows into ETFs, improving long-term growth rates, and low volatility are leading us to a transitional but hopeful market. Right now, participants are observing closely to see what next directional move U.S. economic data will provide.

From April Trough to June Recovery: CAGR Jumps from 7% to 31%

The local bottom for long-term Bitcoin holders and trend-followers occurred in April 2025. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR), which is a vital statistic for gauging the performance of sustained returns, was measured at just 7% over a four-year period, marking the lowest level for this figure in several years. What made this bottom even more agonizing was that it coincided with one of the tightest margin environments in recent history, where many traders were trading near or below breakeven after the halving event.

Yet, since June, the story seems to have changed. Bitcoin’s price has lately seen a fairly strong comeback, coming close to the $110,000 mark, which has pulled the four-year CAGR up to about 31%. That puts us back in territory that most analysts deem “the strong zone” of price appreciation. It should #0817be noted, though, that with a four-year CAGR of 31%, we’re still well below historical CAGRs achieved during Bitcoin bull markets. Most analysts peg those returns as being in the 50% to 80% range, which definitely makes us wonder what’s going on with the price of Bitcoin.

This recovery is happening in the context of an intensified futures market and a leverage ratio close to all-time highs. If these factors remain in play, analysts say, Bitcoin could rocket to $168,000 by as early as October 2025. If that happens, it will follow a post-halving pattern we have seen on two prior occasions.

Calm Before the Catalyst: Volatility Drops Ahead of Inflation Data

Despite an overall positive outlook, short-term volatility has decreased. The Bitcoin Average True Range (ATR), a barometer for price movement that’s usually so calm you could practically hear it meditating, has fallen to around 200. This level—and it is very much a level, as we will see—that’s been seen for just a few days in recent history, suggests traders and institutional actors are doing what rabbits do best: waiting.

An upcoming possible catalyst is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. If it shows inflation is coming in hotter than expected, it could take the air out of the current crypto bullishness by making it a lot less likely that the Fed is going to cut rates anytime soon. Strong CPI figures could also reignite some of the old concerns around tighter financial conditions. Historically, those have been bad for risk assets, including crypto.

In contrast, a softer CPI reading is probably going to pump up the bulls more and more, if even at a slower pace. They see the current environment as having more space for monetary policy easing, and that could lead to a faster inflow of capital into Bitcoin and digital assets on the whole.

At the same time, the present low-volatility setting could be laying the groundwork for a prompt shift in either direction. With a close consolidation around the $110,000 level, technical analysts appear to be eyeing the cryptocurrency for signs it could be setup for a breakout—or breakdown—as fresh data comes to light.

ETF Inflows Continue, Underscoring Institutional Demand

Even with the macro uncertainty, institutional interest in Bitcoin keeps growing. On June 11, the newest financial product based on Bitcoin, the spot Bitcoin ETF, recorded $165 million in net inflows, marking the third consecutive day of positive fund flows and taking total assets in the funds to $920 million.

Despite the ongoing vault of the Bitcoin price, this is not a product that financial advisors seem likely to recommend to their clients anytime soon.

ETF inflows are often viewed as a sign that the mainstream is adopting something and committing long-term capital to it. Spot ETFs buy Bitcoin directly, singling them out for special attention. Though that attention is only likely to be paid in the event of sustained, elsewise healthy, demand, the direct purchase and the likely effect of it on prices is a conversation central to understanding the future of Bitcoin in a world that insists on putting it somewhere.

Consistent, steady inflows indicate that big investors see present levels as an attractive entry point, especially when viewed alongside Bitcoin’s improving risk-adjusted return profile and its swelling appeal as a hedge against central bank-induced monetary mayhem.

Conclusion

Since April, Bitcoin’s resurgence has shown that the asset can weather short-term uncertainty and macro headwinds to maintain resilience. With compound annual growth rate (CAGR) numbers back in the strong zone, falling volatility, and resuming ETF inflows, the market seems to be building a solid base for the next move.

It remains to be seen if Bitcoin will hit the audacious target of $168,000 by October. Whether it does will rely on a combination of factors: how stable leverage is; what sorts of data come from the macro side; and whether the institutions keep on playing ball. But at this moment, it feels like the recovery is happening—and that the momentum is firmly with the bulls.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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