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Bitcoin enters mid-2025 consolidating just below all-time highs, navigating a turbulent year marked by deep macro and geopolitical volatility. The year began with US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff policies, which rattled global trade relationships and pressured risk assets. Rising US Treasury yields soon followed, raising concerns of systemic fragility as inflationary pressure collided with tightening liquidity. Most recently, the outbreak of direct conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated fear across financial markets, prompting a shift toward safe havens like gold.

Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin has remained resilient, currently consolidating above the $100,000 mark after peaking at $112,000 earlier in the year. While some investors fear increased selling pressure due to global instability, others believe the current structure points to strength rather than weakness. According to top analyst Ted Pillows, nothing has fundamentally changed for BTC. His technical perspective argues that Bitcoin is still mirroring gold’s long-term trajectory and remains on course for another breakout in the coming weeks.

With inflation risks still present, fiat concerns growing, and capital rotating toward scarce assets, many are watching Bitcoin not as a speculative play, but as a macro hedge. A breakout above $112K could trigger the next explosive move.

Bitcoin Volatility Spikes As Macro Pressure Builds

Bitcoin is holding firm above $103,000 despite failing to break the $112,000 all-time high last week. The rejection led to a sharp 6% correction, with bears attempting to force the price below key demand zones. Yet, despite intense macro pressure and escalating geopolitical risk, Bitcoin remains structurally intact. The conflict between Israel and Iran has sent shockwaves through global markets, pushing safe-haven assets like oil and gold higher while equities waver. Bitcoin, often seen as digital gold, has surprisingly shown strength amid the chaos.

The upcoming week could be pivotal for BTC. If tensions worsen and traditional markets slide further, Bitcoin’s behavior will test its evolving role as a macro hedge. Investors are watching closely to see whether capital continues to rotate into BTC during risk-off conditions.

Ted Pillows remains optimistic. His technical analysis suggests that nothing has structurally changed for Bitcoin. According to his view, BTC is tracking closely with gold’s historical breakout patterns, implying that the digital asset is merely consolidating before another leg up. Pillow’s long-term outlook sees Bitcoin targeting $160,000–$180,000 by the cycle top.

BTC Consolidates Below Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,527 after a failed attempt to break through the $112,000 level earlier this month. The chart shows a clear rejection from that all-time high area, pushing price back into the $103,600–$109,300 range. This zone remains the primary battleground between bulls and bears.

The 50-day moving average, currently around $103,426, is acting as dynamic support, while the 200-day MA near $95,650 remains a broader trendline for longer-term holders. Volume has slightly decreased during the recent drop, which could indicate that the sell-off lacks strong conviction from market participants.

If BTC holds the $103,600 level—a previous resistance now flipped support—it may set the stage for another push toward $109,300. A breakout above that level would likely open the door for price discovery above $112,000. However, if Bitcoin fails to hold the $103,600 area, it risks falling back into the $97,000–$100,000 region where previous demand was tested in May.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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