As July’s third week opens, Bitcoin has set a fresh all-time high, touching $123,000. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has recorded an impressive gain of approximately 13% in the past week alone.

This market activity, along with a significant inflow of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs, has sparked discussions about the possible onset of a market euphoria phase. However, on-chain indicators suggest a more layered picture.

“Prawns” Stay Out as Bitcoin Hits $123K

Despite the recent price surge, CryptoQuant’s proprietary “Greed Indicator” remains at mid-levels, which indicates that broader retail participation has yet to materialize fully.

The rHODL ratio, which is a gauge of long-term holder behavior and wealth distribution across investor groups, currently sits at 32%. This points to continued caution among retail participants, often referred to as “prawns.” Historically, genuine market euphoria phases have aligned with significant retail inflows, a condition that CryptoQuant believes is not yet clearly evident in the current cycle.

Instead, the recent price momentum appears driven predominantly by institutional flows, while retail seems to have been sidelined as the rally extends. It is important to note that previous euphoric phases in the crypto market consistently followed mass retail entry after initial institutional-led rallies, which then led to parabolic price action.

However, there are early signs of change, with the rHODL ratio beginning to rise in recent days. This uptick could signal the emergence of a retail-driven phase, which, in turn, could potentially set the stage for what some market observers refer to as “the last dance.” For now, the market appears positioned at the edge of euphoria rather than in its full grip.

Bitcoin Rally Faces No Panic Selling

Bitcoin’s surge to a peak has not triggered widespread panic selling, according to Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) data. While SOPR briefly spiked around July 3-4, which indicated some profit-taking activity, it has remained consistently above 1 without sharp declines.

It essentially means that while short-term holders are taking profits, the broader market is not rushing to exit positions. The fact that profit-taking remains controlled signals a constructive environment for price discovery. This condition favors the ongoing bullish trend in the market.