NCAA Tournament East Region Breakdown: Top matchups, upsets, predictions

John Fanta

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

The East Region is The Region of Stars. Why? Because the nation’s top player and future No. 1 NBA Draft pick, Cooper Flagg, headlines Duke, while Mark Sears is at the forefront for Alabama, John Tonje leads a Wisconsin team that reached the Big Ten Championship Game, and Caleb Love has national title game experience with an Arizona team that could be dangerous if everything comes together.

Is this the year Jon Scheyer reaches his first Final Four with a generational prospect in Flagg? We’ll see how the freshman’s ankle injury shakes out, but if he’s healthy, there really are no holes on a Duke team that features an alpha in Tyrese Proctor, a stud shotmaker in Kon Knueppel, rim protection with Khaman Maluach, and a defense that extends out on you and can cause problems left and right. The fact the Blue Devils only turn it over roughly nine times per game is why I also love this team. They play mistake-free basketball.

Can the Crimson Tide reach back-to-back Final Fours? Could BYU be the dark horse?

These storylines and more are featured in the East Region breakdown!

[MORE: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket here]

Of the top four seeds, who has the most favorable draw?

I’m trying to imagine a world where Duke is not at least in the Elite Eight. With the favorable draw the Blue Devils received, Scheyer’s team should coast to the Sweet 16. A second-round game with either Mississippi State or Baylor, two teams that have had an inconsistent season with the Bulldogs struggling to score at times and the Bears being weak defensively, makes me confident in the Blue Devils’ chance to cruise to the second weekend.

While I do believe Oregon could cause some problems with Dana Altman, who is proven as a tournament coach, or Arizona could create some noise with Love, the Blue Devils have already beaten the Wildcats and I don’t know if I trust the Ducks’ guards enough.

Duke has the most favorable draw of the top seeds.

What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this region?

I think the 6 vs. 11 showdown between BYU and VCU has a chance to be phenomenal. It’s a Cougars team that is stacked on the offensive end of the floor, ranking 11th in the country in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency, while the A-10 champion Rams have a stud in Max Shulga and a top-25 defense. But VCU must now find an answer for one of America’s hottest teams, with first-year head coach Kevin Young leading his Cougars on a streak of nine wins in their last 10 games and Richie Saunders, along with freshman stud guard Egor Demin, leading the way. If the Rams let Saunders and fifth-year senior Trevin Knell get cooking from 3, look out.

On the defensive side of the ball for BYU, the Cougars have to try and stop Shulga and his fellow seniors, Joe Bamisile and Jack Clark. That trio combined for 52 points in Sunday’s A-10 Championship Game victory over George Mason.

This is not a normal 6 vs. 11 matchup, with VCU ranked 30th in KenPom. The Rams play a clean game with a +5 rebounding margin and +3 turnover margin. Neither team really forces a lot of turnovers, but if the Rams are going to pull the upset, they need to win the battle from beyond the arc with both teams averaging roughly 10 made triples per game.

Who are the must-see players in this region?

There is so much individual talent in this region, but the three biggest names are Flagg, Sears and Love. Yes, Tonje is someone who could take this region over and charge the Badgers on a big run, but when you have the No. 1 pick in June’s NBA Draft, an All-American guard in Sears who powered the Crimson Tide to the Final Four last year, and one of the most explosive guards in the country in Love, who has made a Final Four when in Chapel Hill, it’s difficult to beat that trio.

Flagg is expected to play in the Big Dance despite his ankle injury, and when he does reappear, it will be the single-biggest storyline in the tournament after he averaged 19/8/4 in the regular season. What will the phenom have in store on college basketball’s biggest stage? Watching him on both ends with his outstanding defense and ability to attack the rim is a treat. As for Sears, can he lead the Tide back to the promised land? He’s had some ups and downs this year, but when he’s at his best, nobody is better. And Love could shoot the Cats in or out of a game. I am fascinated to see what version of him we see.

[MORE: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket here]

What is the most likely first-round upset in this region?

The upset pick that I have is the Akron Zips over Arizona. John Groce has led a team that has four scorers averaging at least nine points per game, and with a top-70 offense and top-20 tempo in the country, I don’t think they’ll be fazed one bit by the Wildcats of Arizona.

I like Liberty a lot as a team, but the Flames got a tough draw with Oregon. VCU, coming off an A-10 title victory and now going out west to meet BYU, also has a hard draw. So, I’ll ride with Akron to pull off an upset behind Nate and Tavari Johnson.

Who will win this region?

Duke.

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

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