NCAA Tournament West Region Breakdown: Top matchups, upsets, predictions

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

It’s difficult to imagine a region with more coaching star power than what the West will offer viewers of this year’s NCAA Tournament. There’s Rick Pitino at St. John’s and Bill Self at Kansas. There’s John Calipari at Arkansas and some guy named Dan Hurley at UConn, winner of the last two national championships. Those four heavyweights have seven rings between them.

And yet, the No. 1 seed doesn’t belong to any of them. That distinction was claimed by Florida head coach Todd Golden, a 39-year-old riser who spent three seasons in charge at San Francisco before taking over the Gators in 2022. Golden’s team outlasted arguably the most loaded conference tournament field of all time to sit atop the quadrant.

Nestled beneath those headlining acts are even more storylines surrounding the best team Penny Hardaway has assembled at Memphis and one of the biggest turnarounds in the sport at Missouri, where head coach Dennis Gates went 0-18 in conference play last season and earned a 6-seed in this year’s NCAA Tournament. All told, it might be the most compelling section of this year’s bracket.

Here’s a full breakdown of the region:

Of the top-four seeds, which team has the most favorable draw in this region?

The combination of geography and opponents make the West region a fairly palatable draw for second-seeded St. John’s, winners of both the Big East regular season and tournament titles. First- and second-round games in Providence, Rhode Island, should offer some friendly confines for the Red Storm, whose ever-increasing fan base can make the relatively short drive from New York City across the Connecticut coastline. That Pitino also coached at Providence from 1985-87, guiding the Friars to the Final Four during his second season, will ensure a warm reception for him and his players all weekend. And if St. John’s can advance to the regional in San Francisco, the Red Storm might be facing a No. 1 seed in Florida that would endure just as much travel to reach the Chase Center.

As for potential opponents along the way, the Red Storm likely won’t be intimidated by the name-value matchup between No. 7 Kansas (Bill Self) and No. 10 Arkansas (John Calipari), two teams that wildly underachieved this season. A potential Sweet 16 matchup with third-seeded Texas Tech might be difficult given how well-rounded the Red Raiders are — sixth in offensive efficiency, 37th in defensive efficiency — but there don’t seem to be many viable dark horses in this quadrant. It must be said, however, that St. John’s could well encounter arguably the hottest team in the country should it face off with Florida in the Elite Eight. The Gators stormed through the SEC Tournament over the weekend and have won 12 of their last 13 games overall.

What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this region?

The opening-round tilt between seventh-seeded Kansas and 10th-seeded Arkansas features two of the most accomplished coaches in college basketball history. Bill Self, who has been in charge of the Jayhawks since 2003, can claim two national championships and four Final Four appearances, not to mention more than 800 career victories. His counterpart, John Calipari, whose high-profile move from Kentucky to Arkansas was among the sport’s biggest news stories last spring, has one national title of his own and six Final Four appearances spread across three schools: UMass, Memphis and Kentucky. He, too, has more than 800 career wins.

If that wasn’t enough intrigue, consider the talent on both rosters: Arkansas has three potential draft picks in Adou Thiero, Boogie Fland and Zvonimir Ivisic, while Kansas is led by one of the most productive centers of the last decade in fifth-year senior Hunter Dickinson, who has scored more than 2,700 points in his career.

Oh, and the winner of this mouth-watering matchup will — in all likelihood — face Pitino in the second round. It doesn’t get much better than that.

Who are the must-see players in this region?

— JT Toppin, forward, Texas Tech: The New Mexico transfer is surely in the conversation for this year’s best portal addition considering his high-level combination of individual and team success. Toppin is averaging 18.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game to lead the Red Raiders in all three categories, with efficiency numbers that have him ranked as the fifth-best player in the country by KenPom. He has already guided Texas Tech to its highest win count (25) since the 2018-19 campaign.

— Derik Queen, center, Maryland: A five-star prospect and the No. 12 overall prospect in the 2024 recruiting cycle, Queen became the second-best signee in Maryland history when the Baltimore native chose to stay home and play for the Terrapins. He has enjoyed a tremendous true freshman season and enters the NCAA Tournament leading Maryland in scoring at 16.3 points per game and tied for the team lead in rebounds with nine per game. Most draft experts project him as a lottery pick later this year.

— Walter Clayton Jr.., guard, Florida: Clayton began his collegiate career coming off the bench for Pitino at Iona and developed into a 16.8 point-per-game scorer by the time his second and final season with the Gaels was complete. He has gotten even better across two years at Florida and now averages 17.4 points, 4.4 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. His string of 18 consecutive games in double figures is eye-catching.

What is the most likely first-round upset in this region?

Could it be No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis? The Rams will enter the NCAA Tournament on an absolute tear after winning their final seven games of the regular season and then storming through the Mountain West Tournament with three more victories — including one against fellow March Madness participant Utah State — by an average of 10.7 points per game. Few teams will roll into the Big Dance with more momentum than head coach Niko Medved’s group, which ranks among the top 50 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is Colorado State’s third trip to the NCAA Tournament over the last four years, but Medved is still searching for his first victory.

Memphis (29-5) put together its best campaign under embattled, seventh-year coach Penny Hardaway, winning both the regular season and tournament titles in the American Athletic Conference. Hardaway has made shrew additions in the transfer portal in recent years by signing former Tulsa guard PJ Haggerty (21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds per game), former Illinois center Dain Dainja (14.1 points, 7.1 rebounds per game) and former Texas guard Tyrese Hunter (13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds per game) — three players that now represent the team’s three leading scorers. But Hunter suffered a left foot injury during the conference tournament and did not play in the championship game against UAB. His status for the NCAA Tournament is unclear.

Who will win this region?

Florida. In a year when the SEC is sending a record 14 teams to the Big Dance, including five teams among the top 15 seeds overall, the Gators will enter March Madness playing better basketball than any of them. Golden’s team ran away from No. 21 Missouri, No. 5 Alabama and No. 8 Tennessee in consecutive days to cut down the nets at the SEC Tournament on Sunday and improve its résumé enough to claim the final 1-seed over the Volunteers. Florida has six players averaging at least 8.0 points per game for a unit that leads the country in offensive efficiency at 128.6 points per 100 possessions. Pairing that kind of balance and explosiveness with a defense that ranks 10th nationally is a recipe for high-level success.

Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.

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