TLDR

• NFLX stock jumped over 5% ahead of Q1 earnings
• Netflix eyes doubling revenue and hitting $1T valuation by 2030
• Strong 1-year return of nearly 61% beats broader market
• Bank of America calls Netflix a recession-resistant stock
• Q1 marks first earnings report without subscriber numbers

Netflix shares surged 4.83% to close at $976.28 on April 15, as investors looked ahead to Thursday’s Q1 earnings release on April 16th. This will be the first earnings report that excludes subscriber numbers, signaling a shift in how the company measures success.

 Netflix Inc. ($NFLX)

The rally follows reports that Netflix is targeting a $1 trillion valuation by 2030. With a current market cap near $420 billion, this ambitious goal has caught the attention of Wall Street.

Outpacing the market by a wide margin

Netflix’s recent performance has impressed. The stock is up 9.53% year-to-date, beating the S&P 500’s 8.25% gain. Over the past year, it has climbed nearly 61%, while the broader index rose just 6.6%. Over a three-year period, Netflix has returned 186%, compared to 23% for the S&P.

This strength has helped Netflix stand apart from other tech giants, especially as many in the Magnificent 7 cohort have struggled since the start of 2025.

Analysts back long-term upside

Bank of America remains bullish, setting a price target of $1,175—about 26% above Monday’s close. Analysts say Netflix’s business model is built to withstand economic slowdowns, making it attractive in today’s choppy market.

Jessica Reif Ehrlich’s team at BofA cited Netflix’s steady subscription income, pricing power, and content library as key strengths. The company’s profitability metrics support that case, with a 22.34% profit margin and $8.71 billion in net income over the trailing twelve months.

Growth story shifts to global and ad markets

With the U.S. market nearing saturation, Netflix sees strong potential overseas. Expansion in international markets and new ad-supported plans could unlock fresh growth. The company’s $21.25 billion in free cash flow provides room for continued investment in content and technology.

Price hikes across its subscription tiers may also contribute to rising revenue without heavy new spending. These efforts align with Netflix’s goal of doubling revenue by 2030, a milestone that would solidify its dominance in streaming.

Why some call Netflix recession-proof

Analysts like Joe Terranova say Netflix’s position as an affordable form of entertainment makes it resilient during economic downturns. When consumers cut back, streaming at home becomes more appealing than expensive nights out.

That defensive appeal has only grown as macro uncertainty persists in 2025. While many tech stocks have stumbled, Netflix has gained investor trust as a reliable bet with staying power.

All eyes on Thursday’s earnings

Investors are keen to see how Netflix’s business has evolved without the subscriber metric. Focus is shifting toward revenue, profitability, and user engagement, especially as the company leans into advertising and global expansion.

As the earnings call approaches, sentiment remains strong. If Netflix delivers on its ambitious roadmap, the stock may have room to run well beyond its current highs.