Bitcoin in 2025 reached a new all-time high of $108,786 on January 20. Historically, Bitcoin makes its most gains after a halving event, followed by a crypto bear market.

BTC’s most recent halving event occurred on April 19, 2024. Since then, Bitcoin has surged from $64,461 to over $100,000. 

Investors have wondered if Bitcoin’s trajectory post-halving could change as institutional buyers and ETFs enter the BTC equation, possibly disrupting BTC’s historical performances by extending bull runs or possibly shortening them into early bear markets. 

To find out when the next crypto bear market could arrive, we must first look into how bull markets are typically created. 

What Triggers a Crypto Bull Market?

Bull markets in crypto tend to run in cycles. Cycles can be triggered by a variety of events such as Bitcoin halvings and macroeconomic factors. 

Most notably, since the first second Bitcoin halving on July 9, 201, investors in the crypto market noticed that every 4 years after a halving, BTC tended to surge for at least 12 months before settling again. 

After the Bitcoin halving of 2012, BTC gained 8,000%, after BTC’s notorious 2020 halving, the token gained 559%, indicating that halving events tended to affect not only Bitocin’s supply and proof-of-work rewards but also how investors traded. 

Since Bitcoin’s 2024 halving in April, the token made a new all-time high 9 months later in January 2025, with more room for the token to grow according to analysts.

Another factor that may contribute to crypto bull markets is macroeconomic interest rates. With low interest rates, there is more liquidity in the financial markets are risk assets such as BTC are able to thrive. 

There may also be investors in traditional finance who are looking to leverage against a weakening United States dollar and inflation. Bitcoin, treated as “digital gold” may act as a safe haven against inflation due to BTC’s limited supply of 21 million tokens. 

Combining all those factors, especially Bitcoin halving events which are easily traceable, we can see that bull markets in crypto can be triggered by a myriad of events. 

But what would trigger a bear market? With institutional adoption reaching new heights with BlackRock’s BTC ETFs becoming the most successful ETF launches in history, incisions could rescue Bitcoin from having violent bear withdrawals. 

What Triggers a Crypto Bear Market?

Looking at Bitcoin’s chart, there seems to be a notion that after 12 – 18 months after a Bitcoin halving event, the crypto market peaks, and BTC falls to previous support levels made around the beginning of the halving, usually over 50% below its most recent all-time highs. 

Since Bitcoin tends to reach new all-time highs after a halving event, those who bought before the event will go on to take profits after a new all-time high, usually triggering large sell-offs which can then snowball into cascading prices.

It’s easy to imagine that bear markets in crypto are simply triggered by responses to Bitocni’s sharp increases after a halving event and early buyers reacting to BTC’s price-reaching eye-watering targets.

Black swan events have also impacted Bitcoin, pulling prices lower during downtrends or bear markets. An example would be the COVID crash in March 2020 which pulled Bitcoin from $10k to lows of $3,800. 

Most bear markets have been marked with centralized exchanges or large crypto firms collapsing. Examples would be Mt.Gox’s collapse after Bitocn’s first bull market in 2014 followed by FTX and Terra in 2022. 

With institutional players fully entering the cryptocurrency market with billions behind them, could bear markets become less brutal? Considering how much larger the crypto market’s total market cap has become ($2.9 trillion), players may be less inclined to induce mass sell-offs going forward. 

There could be a time in the near future when large, sharp crashes in Bitcoin’s price become more tame and less violent thanks to ETFs and Bitcoin being more connected to the traditional financial system.

Institutional adoption could also help us find an answer to when is next crypto bear market will be, if Bitcoin’s decent 12-18 months after a halving event becomes undone in the future. 

Could Bitcoin Follow the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 has been through around 3 major crashes over the past 10 years, influenced by COVID, the Federal Reserve’s interest rates, and the Chinese market movements.

In 2018 the S&P 500 fell 19.8% after the FED raised interest rates and fears of a trade war between the US and China were at their highest. 

During COVID, the S&P 500 fell 33% as the pandemic wreaked havoc on global trade, markets and travel. After each crash, the S&P 500 has returned stronger.

Theories suggest that as institutional firms enter crypto, Bitcoin could start following the S&P 500 more closely and mirror macroeconomic conditions over halving events, rendering old market prediction methods obsolete. 

When Is Next Crypto Bear Market?

To answer the question of when the next Bitcoin bear market will be can come down to multiple factors mentioned throughout this page. 

With institutional adoption reaching a boiling point in 2025, we could see Bitcoin follow in the footsteps of the S&P, possibly rending predictions of a BTC bear market 12 – 18 months after halving events a useless metric. 

If it were to happen, then crypto market “cycles” would be extended, or redrafted altogether to match new market conditions and theories. It would mean that bear markets could be less violent and less frequent. 

If institutional adoption does not alter crypto’s typical market cycles, we may see the next crypto bear market in late 2025 or early 2026 at the latest. April 2024 was Bitocin’s last halving with the next halving due March 26, 2028. 

Following a typical market structure in crypto, Bitcoin’s next bear market could be April 2025 or October 2025, matching with existing 12 – 18 months where BTC typically surges. Looking at the market now, April 2025 may not be the beginning of a new bear market at all, so all eyes have shifted to October 2025. 

If October 2025 comes and goes without a visible bear market, then it could be safe to say that crypto has entered an extended bull market or that the rules as we know them have changed, possibly due to institutional players.